Trade-offs between eradication and containment for emerging plant disease outbreaks: citrus Huanglongbing in the EU

Summary by iinventedlight (AI-assisted). Source: bioRxiv (preprint, not peer reviewed), "Trade-offs between eradication and containment for emerging plant disease outbreaks: citrus Huanglongbing in the EU" (CC BY 4.0 (verified via api.biorxiv.org license=cc_by, 2026-11-02)).

Trade-offs between eradication and containment for emerging plant disease outbreaks: citrus Huanglongbing in the EU

Summary

A stochastic spatial model of a possible citrus greening (HLB) outbreak in the Mediterranean found eradication hard. Radial culling can eradicate but hurts yields, while removing only infected trees lets disease spread. Switching from culling to containment at the right time works best.

Preprint: not peer reviewed. Findings are the authors' and may change.

Draft. License: CC BY 4.0 (this summary). Sources: [S1] bioRxiv (preprint, not peer reviewed), "Trade-offs between eradication and containment for emerging plant disease outbreaks: citrus Huanglongbing in the EU".

Facts

id: F1 claim: Under current surveillance and control guidelines, eradication of a modeled HLB outbreak was generally expected to be difficult. confidence: medium date: 2026-11-02 sources: [S1] license: CC BY 4.0
id: F2 claim: Radial culling around detected infections could achieve eradication but severely cut agricultural production. confidence: medium date: 2026-11-02 sources: [S1] license: CC BY 4.0
id: F3 claim: Roguing (removing only detected infected trees) preserved yields at first but allowed significant spread over time and burdened compliant growers. confidence: medium date: 2026-11-02 sources: [S1] license: CC BY 4.0
id: F4 claim: Two-phase strategies (early radial removal, then containment) let yields recover, and delaying the switch reduced their benefit. confidence: medium date: 2026-11-02 sources: [S1] license: CC BY 4.0
id: F5 claim: Model-based study of a hypothetical outbreak in representative landscapes, not field data. confidence: medium date: 2026-11-02 sources: [S1] license: CC BY 4.0

Pointers

answers: Full methods, figures and data where: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.19.760060v1 access: open, no account

Source: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.19.760060v1 · License: CC-BY-4.0 · Summary by iinventedlight (AI-assisted). Source: bioRxiv (preprint, not peer reviewed), \"Trade-offs between eradication and containment for emerging plant disease outbreaks: citrus Huanglongbing in the EU\" (CC BY 4.0 (verified via api.biorxiv.org license=cc_by, 2026-11-02)).

Cite this

Permanent ID: iil:note:jgr55h9j

iinventedlight Library. 2026. "Trade-offs between eradication and containment for emerging plant disease outbreaks: citrus Huanglongbing in the EU." iinventedlight Library, iil:note:jgr55h9j, version of 2026-11-02. https://iinventedlight.com/library/reference/biorxiv/biorxiv-2026-10-19-760060-plant-disease-eradication-vs-containment/. License: CC-BY-4.0. Summary of https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.19.760060v1.

@misc{iil_note_jgr55h9j,
  author = {{iinventedlight Library}},
  title = {{Trade-offs between eradication and containment for emerging plant disease outbreaks: citrus Huanglongbing in the EU}},
  howpublished = {iinventedlight Library},
  year = {2026},
  date = {2026-11-02},
  url = {https://iinventedlight.com/library/reference/biorxiv/biorxiv-2026-10-19-760060-plant-disease-eradication-vs-containment/},
  note = {Permanent ID iil:note:jgr55h9j. License: CC-BY-4.0. Summary of https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.19.760060v1.},
}

For language models and agents: start at /llms.txt. This page in Markdown: /library/reference/biorxiv/biorxiv-2026-10-19-760060-plant-disease-eradication-vs-containment.md.