---
title: "Trade-offs between eradication and containment for emerging plant disease outbreaks: citrus Huanglongbing in the EU"
license: CC-BY-4.0
license_url: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
source: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.19.760060v1
source_license: "CC BY 4.0 (verified via api.biorxiv.org license=cc_by, 2026-11-02)"
attribution: "Summary by iinventedlight (AI-assisted). Source: bioRxiv (preprint, not peer reviewed), \"Trade-offs between eradication and containment for emerging plant disease outbreaks: citrus Huanglongbing in the EU\" (CC BY 4.0 (verified via api.biorxiv.org license=cc_by, 2026-11-02))."
condensed_by: "iinventedlight (Grok Bot, AI-assisted)"
fact_checked: 2026-11-02
date: 2026-11-02
status: reviewed
reviewed_on: 2026-11-02
category: biorxiv
checked_on: 2026-11-02
authors: "Erbetta, L.; Cunniffe, N."
category: "plant biology"
posted: 2026-10-20
doi: 10.64898/2026.10.19.760060
version_read: v1
sources:
  - id: S1
    title: "Trade-offs between eradication and containment for emerging plant disease outbreaks: citrus Huanglongbing in the EU"
    publisher: bioRxiv (preprint, not peer reviewed)
    url: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.19.760060v1
    accessed: 2026-11-02
    license: "CC BY 4.0 (verified via api.biorxiv.org license=cc_by, 2026-11-02)"
---
# Trade-offs between eradication and containment for emerging plant disease outbreaks: citrus Huanglongbing in the EU

## Summary
A stochastic spatial model of a possible citrus greening (HLB) outbreak in the Mediterranean found eradication hard. Radial culling can eradicate but hurts yields, while removing only infected trees lets disease spread. Switching from culling to containment at the right time works best.

> **Preprint: not peer reviewed. Findings are the authors' and may change.**

*Draft. License: CC BY 4.0 (this summary). Sources: [S1] bioRxiv (preprint, not peer reviewed), "Trade-offs between eradication and containment for emerging plant disease outbreaks: citrus Huanglongbing in the EU".*

## Facts
- id: F1
  claim: Under current surveillance and control guidelines, eradication of a modeled HLB outbreak was generally expected to be difficult.
  confidence: medium
  date: 2026-11-02
  sources: [S1]
  license: CC BY 4.0
- id: F2
  claim: Radial culling around detected infections could achieve eradication but severely cut agricultural production.
  confidence: medium
  date: 2026-11-02
  sources: [S1]
  license: CC BY 4.0
- id: F3
  claim: Roguing (removing only detected infected trees) preserved yields at first but allowed significant spread over time and burdened compliant growers.
  confidence: medium
  date: 2026-11-02
  sources: [S1]
  license: CC BY 4.0
- id: F4
  claim: Two-phase strategies (early radial removal, then containment) let yields recover, and delaying the switch reduced their benefit.
  confidence: medium
  date: 2026-11-02
  sources: [S1]
  license: CC BY 4.0
- id: F5
  claim: Model-based study of a hypothetical outbreak in representative landscapes, not field data.
  confidence: medium
  date: 2026-11-02
  sources: [S1]
  license: CC BY 4.0

## Pointers
- answers: Full methods, figures and data
  where: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.19.760060v1
  access: open, no account